February 27, 2016

2016 Oscar Predictions

It's that time of the year again - when we all sit around and bitch about what was or was not nominated for awards. And as usual, I'm torn between voting for what I want to win and what I think will win. But as much as I want to take a stance against voting for movies like The Revenant, I like winning more. So here are my picks: feel free to challenge me with your own. I'm undefeated 3 years running.

Best Picture predicted winner: The Revenant

In my perfect world, The Big Short would win. Not because it was the most entertaining or best quality movie necessarily, but because then countless people would be spurred to then watch it. I'm going to make it my life's mission to get every single person to watch this movie until financial reform is enacted in the country. Seriously though, watch The Big Short. For the love of God.

  • The Big Short: It won't win, but it's times like these I'm grateful the Oscars still exist to give exposure to these types of movies.
  • Bridge of Spies: I can guarantee not enough people stayed awake through this whole movie to vote for it.
  • Brooklyn: Pretty sure this got nominated just to make the nominees feel less male-dominated.
  • Mad Max: Fury Road: I'll be honest--I just ran out of stamina and I wasn't super looking forward to seeing it, so I just didn't. But I wouldn't pick it to win anyway. I know a lot of people loved it, but it just seems too...unrefined for a Best Picture pick.
  • The Martian: Entertaining? Yes. One of the best 8 movies of the year? Not by a long shot.
  • The Revenant: I refuse to watch this movie. That amount of blood and gore cannot be necessary for anyone to watch. But based on people's ridiculously overhyped reactions to it, I'm picking it as the likely winner this year. 
  • Room: This was actually the best movie of the bunch. 
  • Spotlight: If I could hedge my bets, this would be my second choice.

Best Actor predicted winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

This article sums up exactly why Leo shouldn't win (even though I didn't see the movie), but he will.

  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo: He was good, but the ensemble makes the movie, not Cranston alone. If anything, Helen Mirren outshone him in her limited screen time.
  • Matt Damon, The Martian: The hype surrounding this movie seems to have faded quickly.
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant: This is finally the year the Academy rewards Leo for his years of patience. Is it his best role? Probably not, but when does anyone ever win "Best Actor" for their best role? The Academy is constantly playing catch up and it's finally Leo's turn.
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs: Inertia from last year? I'm not seeing an Oscar-worthy performance here. I mean, he has terrible hair in the movie, but you'd think the Academy would have more exacting standards.
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl: He can't possibly win 2 years in a row--even with normally Oscar-winning material like being a transgender male in a period piece.

Best Actress predicted winner: Brie Larson, Room

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol: Always a perennial favorite, but I don't think this movie got the kind of exposure it needed to pull down the big awards.
  • Brie Larson, Room: Give this woman a frickin' Oscar. I haven't cried this much since watching Revolutionary Road
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Joy: The Academy seems to be compelled to nominate her for something every year. It doesn't mean she has to win every time, though.
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years: I don't want to say I'm rooting against her after her comments about the Oscars diversity controversy broke, but without seeing her movie, I'm certainly not hoping she wins. 
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn: Excellent acting, but I think she was edged out by Larson this year. I have no doubt Ronan will be back with another nomination though.

Best Supporting Actor predicted winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

It wouldn't be the Oscars if someone wasn't completely snubbed and this year is no different. Enter: Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation. Was it my favorite movie of the year? No. Was he completely overlooked? Yes. Is it all a big conspiracy from the Hollywood studios because they're pissed Netflix put out a movie for basically nothing? I'm not ruling it out. But hey, it clears the way for the Academy to give an Oscar to Sly before he catches the cancer bug that's going around...

And while I'm on the subject of snubs, I'm pretty sure the next best performance of the year was turned in by the little kid in Room.
  • Christian Bale, The Big Short: I feel conflicted about his nomination. He played his part well, as always, but I'm not fully convinced he deserved the nod above Steve Carrell. 
  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant: Since I am boycotting this movie, I have nothing to comment on Hardy's performance.
  • Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight: He was literally the only thing I didn't like about the movie. Literally. The. Only. Thing.
  • Marl Rylance, Bridge of Spies: I loved him. Even though America tells me I should hate a Russian spy in the Cold War Era. If I were a voter, he would be my pick. Aside from writing Elba's name in, of course.
  • Sylvester Stallone, Creed: Let's call it a "Lifetime Achivement" award.

Best Supporting Actress predicted winner: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

I think this category, more than the others, is a crap shoot. I'm giving it to Kate Winslet--not because she deserves it the most--but because I think she will win. Why? I have no clue. Because people like her? Because it was a thin year?
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight: I just can't. Tarantino. Enough said.
  • Rooney Mara, Carol: Uh....this is where my lack of knowledge really starts to hamper my decision-making skills.
  • Rachel McAdams, Spotlight: She's good, but it's an ensemble cast. It's not as if she stands out.
  • Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl: Wasn't she nominated for 2 different performances at the Golden Globes? Maybe that means she had enough of a stellar year to bag the prize here?
  • Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs: Doesn't a movie have to be good to nominate people from it? Did Apple pay for these award nominations? I don't get it.

Best Original Screenplay predicted winner: Spotlight

It's impossible to go through these predictions without at least mentioning the elephant in the room: #OscarsStillSoWhite. Straight Outta Compton was one of the best movies I watched last year and the fact that it was almost completely overlooked throughout the entire awards season is tragic. Anyone arguing a biopic about musicians isn't "Oscar fare" needs to go back and watch Ray. Or La Vie en Rose. Or Walk the Line. All of which, btw, WON. So even though I'm happy to see the guys got a bone thrown toward them, I still don't think Oscar voters are going to go all the way and actually award them anything.

  • Bridge of Spies: It's a remarkable story, but I don't see it going home with anything. In any category.
  • Ex Machina: I didn't see this, but isn't it just about a sci-fi sex doll?
  • Inside Out: Even though this wasn't my favorite Pixar movie by a long shot, I do think it was very creative and I'm happy to see voters branch out and nominate an unexpected choice--like an animated movie--for this category. 
  • Spotlight: I think voters really want this movie to win something, and it's not going to in any other category it's nominated. Not saying it doesn't deserve it, but I think it's going to win by default.
  • Straight Outta Compton: This was one of my favorite movies I saw last year. And if Mad Max: Fury Road can get such love, why not this movie?

Best Adapted Screenplay predicted winner: The Big Short

I have no idea who is considered the "front runner" for this category. I don't think there is one. It could literally go any which way.
  • The Big Short: If you've read this far, you already know how I feel about this movie.
  • Brooklyn: Sweet movie, but not heavyweight enough to compete with the others in this category.
  • Carol: This movie won some awards early on, but seems to have been largely ignored since then.
  • The Martian: I've heard from most people, it's a pretty excellent adaptation from a very beloved book. That must count for something. 
  • Room: This is the most depressing movie I've possibly ever seen. I would choose it to win, except I'm not sure it got the exposure it needed because of the utterly horrifying subject matter. Also, everyone I know that read the book said they couldn't possibly make it through the movie.

Best Original Song predicted winner: "Writing's On The Wall" from Spectre

I'll be honest: I only wanted to highlight this category because it meant Fifty Shades of Grey was nominated. I mean, is this the Academy's way of staying edgy? Three Six Mafia? Nine Inch Nails? Now the Weekend and Lady Gaga? Who's next: One Direction? (Yes, I know they broke up. I was just making a joke. And now I've outed myself as a loser who knows not only who 1D is, but that they broke up. Thanks a lot.)

  • "Earned It" from Fifty Shades of Grey: This was my 4-year-old's favorite song for a spell. It really ruined the mood of the movie for me when it came on.
  • "Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction:  I just read the the artist of this song wasn't even invited to attend the Oscars. What? That's not a good sign...
  • "Simple Song #3" from Youth: I might lean toward this song simply for the fact that it's in a movie about old people (which Academy voters love), but this seems to be the category where more "popular" songs win.
  • "Writing's On The Wall" from Spectre: Two word: Sam Smith. I think his soaring popularity is going to net a win.
  • "Til It Happens To You" from The Hunting Ground: Sure, it's Gaga, but it's from a documentary. I'm not seeing it happen.

Best Animated Feature predicted winner: Inside Out

I probably shouldn't even make comments on this category considering the only movie I actually watched was Inside Out. But I can't resist padding my average by predicting what I think is a likely slam dunk on the part of Pixar.
  • Anomalisa: This is the only other movie in the category that got any press, mostly because it was rated R. It doesn't matter--the award is going home with Pixar.
  • Boy and the World: Um...
  • Inside Out: Honestly, is there really any question this movie won't be walking away with statue?
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie: I really love Wallace and Gromit, but I have been less impressed by their Gromit-less fare. (Think: Chicken Run.)
  • When Marnie Was There: I have literally never heard of this movie. Ever.
    As usual, I only predicted the categories I care about/feel like I can reasonably predict. So make sure to check out the Oscars Page to find my reviews on other Oscar nominated movies like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Cinderella.

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