February 24, 2013

2013 Oscar predictions

A few years ago, I was invited to my very first Oscar party. It involved food and drinks, of course, but this was a serious Oscar party. There were official ballots and prizes for the winners. I want everyone reading this to know I absolutely cleaned up. I won the top prize by correctly predicting even the most random categories like "Best Sound Mixing" and other categories no one but the people nominated and their mothers care about. The next year... I wasn't invited back. I choose to believe they stopped holding the party.

Anyway, the point of all this is that I need to share my Oscar predictions somewhere, even if there is no sweet $25 Best Buy gift card waiting for me at the end of all this. And if you've been following the blog for the past month or so, you'll know I've been frantically watching as many Oscar-nominated movies as possible for the big day. This might wind up being a mistake, like how people who actually follow college basketball never win their work March Madness pools.

I'm only discussing the major categories + animated movies, since that's all I care about. I'm also boycotting the Best Director category because frankly, it's stupid to nominate nine movies for Best Picture and only five for Best Director.

If you missed any of these reviews, be sure to check them out before watching the Oscars because you don't want to watch the show without knowing my every thought on them! =)

Best Picture - predicted winner: Argo
  • Amour: This nomination came out of nowhere, considering it's in a foreign language and didn't receive much attention before this. That being said, Hollywood loves to feel smug about acknowledging "deep" movies and I think that's the case here.
  • ArgoRegardless of how you feel about this movie, it's going to win Best Picture. It won at the Golden Globes, it won at the Screen Actor's Guild. I liked it immensely, but I also thought it was a thin year for Best Picture nominations.
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild: It was sweet of the Academy to include this in its Best Picture noms, but everyone knows it won't win. It's just padding to the list.
  • Django Unchained: Didn't see this - I can't sit through Tarantino movies. Why must they all be so bloody?
  • Les Miserables: It's a popular choice because of the number of Hollywood stars in it, but musicals almost never win the big prize.
  • Life of Pi: Totally underrated, in my opinion. Yes, it's a bit showy with the use of color, but in my opinion, it beats all the grim, dark movies it's up against.
  • Lincoln: Yawn. Great acting doesn't necessarily make a great movie.
  • Silver Linings Playbook: I mocked this when it came out, but it seems I may have been wrong. It's hard to ignore all the hype surrounding this one.
  • Zero Dark Thirty: Way too controversial. Even if it were the best movie of the year (which it wasn't), it can't win because the government wouldn't allow it. Just kidding.
Best Actor - predicted winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
  • Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook: It's weird to think that the a**hole boyfriend from Wedding Crashers is now an Oscar nominee, but I suppose weirder things have happened (say, nominating Ted for an Oscar).
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln: I am not saying he doesn't deserve it, but I will say that Hollywood practically faints every time he puts out a new movie. I can't imagine the Academy letting anyone else take that statue home.
  • Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables: Try again later, Hugh. It's Daniel Day-Lewis' year.
  • Joaquin Phoenix, The Master: I regret not having seen this, since it's been recommended to me by several people, but I will say I am confident Joaquin Phoenix is awesome in it. I've liked him ever since I saw To Die For as a kid (which was totally not age appropriate, by the way).
  • Denzel Washington, Flight: Just read my review and you'll know my feelings about Denzel's performance. And this movie in general.
Best Actress - predicted winner: Jessica Chastin
  • Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty: I figure Jessica will win because the majority of hype for this category has been about her performance, which was impressive, but not the best, in my opinion. Alas, until the Academy calls me up to vote, my opinion doesn't count.
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook: She used to be on The Bill Engvall Show! I think Jennifer owes her agent a big fat bonus for the work he's done for her since then - Bill Engvall to the Oscars?!? Twice?!?
  • Emmanuelle Riva, Amour: If the world were fair, this nice old lady would win. I don't know her, but she adequately convinced me she was an old, dying woman who had suffered multiple, debilitating strokes.
  • Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild: She was great, especially considering her age. But I just don't think the Academy is going to give it to her. Hollywood seems to be a "wait until we decide you've earned it, then we'll award you for a movie in which you only do a so-so job because we realize you should have gotten it earlier for a better movie" kind of place.
  • Naomi Watts, The Impossible: Uh...I've got nothing on this, except to say that Naomi Watts is the kind of actress I forget exists. I can never name any movies of hers off the top of my head and sometimes even forget what she looks like. Not the stuff of someone whose name will be forever memorialized in Oscar winning history.
Best Supporting Actor - predicted winner: Christoph Waltz
  • Alan Arkin, Argo: Uh, no, sorry. I have no idea why Alan is nominated, other than the fact that he's 100 and maybe the Academy wants to honor him one last time before he dies or something. There's nothing wrong with his performance, but he certainly doesn't make the movie.
  • Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook: He was good, but Oscar good? I mean, when you think about the fact that his other Oscar wins were Raging Bull and The Godfather, can this really compare?
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master: I can't say anything intelligent on this performance, as I haven't yet seen the movie. I also never saw Capote, so the only performances I have to reference for Philip are the sleazy guy in When a Man Loves a Woman, Lester Bangs in Almost Famous, and a sketchy priest in Doubt. I'm not feeling it for him here.
  • Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln: I just keep coming back to the toupee. I can't, in good conscience, pick someone to win who had such horrible hair in a movie. Maybe it's not scientific or professional, but with so little to choose from in this pool, I've got to eliminate candidates somehow.
  • Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained: I went with a wild-card guess on this one, because I have no idea who will win. Frankly, I wouldn't give it to any of the people I actually watched, so I picked the least likely person. Besides, he has a fun accent.
Best Supporting Actress - predicted winner: Anne Hathaway
  • Amy Adams, The Master: I'm happy to see this perky little redhead make it in Hollywood, considering her less than desirable start in movies like Cruel Intentions 2
  • Sally Field, Lincoln: It's not that Sally Field didn't do a good job in the movie, but I have a hard time believing there weren't actresses more deserving of this nomination. 
  • Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables: Anne should have already written her acceptance speech.
  • Helen Hunt, The Sessions: Would it have been so difficult for the Academy to nominate 10 movies for Best Picture instead of 9 to include this one? It was certainly better than half the movies actually nominated. At least they acknowledged it with Helen Hunt's nomination, which is totally deserved.
  • Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook: uh... I've got nothing, other than to say she's not going to win.
Best Animated Feature Film - predicted winner: Wreck-It Ralph
  • Brave: It's weird to have two Disney movies competing head-to-head here, but based on what I saw in Brave, I'm going to pick the one I didn't see.
  • Frankenweenie: Would this have been nominated if it hadn't been a Tim Burton creation?
  • ParaNorman: From the creators of Coraline. That was enough to convince me I didn't want to watch this.
  • The Pirates! Band of Misfits: I think the Academy was just scraping up enough movies to fill the category.
  • Wreck-It Ralph: Though this was one of the movies I didn't see, I'm picking it to win because it seemed to garner the least negative reviews. Plus, it's Disney and I'm pretty sure Disney always wins this category.
And there you have it. If I'm wrong about any and/or all of these, well, who cares? Most people only tune in to see the outfits anyway.

*Feel free to search the archives for all the Oscar nominated movies I reviewed, including (sadly) Ted, Anna Karenina, Mirror Mirror and more!

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